- In two tweets on Sunday, Donald Trump touted strong poll numbers in Iowa. He currently leads Democrats there for the general election vote.
- Iowa is an important bellwether state not only because of its headline-making caucuses but because it usually picks winners in November.
- President Trump will hold a Monday rally in New Hampshire on the eve of the primary. Buttigieg and Sanders are tied there for first in the primary.
Donald Trump touted his strong Iowa poll numbers Sunday. The president tweeted a graphic of poll numbers showing him leading all major Democratic candidates. He did also claim to be leading in New Hampshire and “most states.”
But that’s not really true. The latest polls show Trump down in New Hampshire and head-to-head with Democrats (Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, and Biden). For the Democratic New Hampshire primary, Buttigieg and Sanders are in a statistical dead heat for first.
On Monday, Donald Trump will visit the Granite State for one of his raucous campaign rallies. He faces an extremely long shot primary challenge in New Hampshire from former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld. The upcoming rally is already causing a stir among Trump’s supporters there. While Democrats battle it out for New Hampshire, Trump is unlikely to win there in November. But he doesn’t need to.
Iowa Bellwether Could Doom 2020 Democrats
New Hampshire voted Democrat in six out of the last seven presidential elections. Two of the three times the Republican won (Bush in 2000 and 2004, Trump in 2016), New Hampshire voted Democrat. But Iowa has picked the winning presidential candidate in every general election since 1992 with one exception.
Interestingly, the one time Iowa got it wrong was in 2000.