The latest Emerson College poll for the 2020 California Democratic primary, conducted between Sept. 13 and Sept. 16, shows former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont socialist Senator Bernie Sanders tied at 26%.
Senator Elizabeth Warren is next at 20%. Andrew Yang has leapt past Senator Kamala Harris, picking up 7% support. Kamala Harris is now at 6%, with Beto O’Rourke at 5% and Peter Buttigieg at 4%.
Only 3 Really Have a Chance
The 2020 Democratic primary challenges are months away, which is an eternity in political time, but these results pretty much confirm that the Democratic race is down to three candidates.
Harris is in big trouble in the 2020 Democratic primary. She is California’s senator as well as a former attorney general. That she can’t muster more than 7% of the vote in her home state suggests that the Democratic party doesn’t find her of much interest.
That leaves Biden, Sanders, and Warren as the Democratic party’s leading contenders.
Which of these three candidates has the best chance of winning the primary, and which has the best chance against President Donald Trump?
Joe Biden: The Comfortable Old Shoe
Joe Biden has a few things going for him in the 2020 Democratic primary. He’s like a comfortable old shoe, albeit one that has a few holes in it. He’s a known entity. He has 40% support from voters over age 50, according to the Emerson poll.
While he could hardly be called a centrist, he is certainly more moderate than either Warren or Sanders. That might actually prove to be a critical element in the election. If Democratic voters have any sense, they will put up the candidate who actually has the best chance to win.