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Crypto trader Nicholas Merten says a historical analysis of Bitcoin’s previous boom and bust cycles indicates a new bull run would bring the price of BTC to $68,000.
Merten, who runs the popular YouTube crypto channel DataDash, says Bitcoin’s rate of return over time will likely continue to naturally decay, with each new bull run bringing around a 1/5 return from the previous run.
Bitcoin’s initial burst from $2 to around $1,000 represented a 51,000% return. The next bull run saw a 9,400% return, as Bitcoin went from around $200 to more than $19,000. By that logic, a new Bitcoin bull run would boost the price of BTC by about 2,300%, to around $68,000.
In the long run, Merten says the dramatic plunges in the price of Bitcoin during its bear market cycles are also likely to level out.
“As we have decaying returns to the upside, we’re going to have decaying downside action as well. So, whereas we’ve seen about an 80% reduction – both times here for the market – it’s going to most likely be that these bear markets drag out longer, and only see about a 60% to 70% reduction. And then in the future, something more around 40% to 50%, which is what we see in much more mature markets. And hopefully, inevitably, much lower levels of decay in downward price action and upward price action, if Bitcoin is to become that store of value.”
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