Over the years many people have speculated on what the price of 1 BTC could be if the world switched to Bitcoin. If a large amount of global wealth moves into Bitcoin, the price would skyrocket. Here are some cocktail napkin calculations performed by community members, trying to figure out how far past the moon we may go.
Hal Finney: 1 Bitcoin = $10M
Hal Finney was one of the first users of the Bitcoin network, actually receiving the first transaction from Satoshi himself. Just days after the launch of the network, he was already considering what the price might look like if the market cap of Bitcoin equaled the total value of all wealth in the world. Speaking on the cryptography mailing list;
Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 21 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.
So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of computing time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million to 1!
Back in Bitcoin’s early days, it was possible to mine using a simple consumer-grade machine. Leaving your computer on for days to maybe get some worthless digital coins doesn’t sound very appealing right off the bat. However, Finney did make a good argument. Those who mined in 2009 have seen some considerable returns.
The Scarcity Selling Point
One of Bitcoin’s most attractive qualities is the fact that it’s provably scarce. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed at will by the state, Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million coins that can’t be changed. Much more recently than Hal’s mailing list post,