Breaking News / Bitcoin / Analytics
Bitcoin (BTC) has already broken the parabolic uptrend that had everyone hoping for a rally to a new yearly high or a new all-time high. The weekly chart for BTC/USD shows that it has now declined below the rising wedge and is hanging by a thread to break below the 38.2% fib extension level from the December, 2018 lows. If the price falls below the 38.2%, we are likely to see a flash crash to the 61.8%. This is when most traders will realize that maybe that is not the beginning of a new bullish cycle. For the past few months, we have been consistently discussing how this is not the beginning of a bullish cycle and how the ongoing market cycle has to be longer than the previous market cycle. This is what has happened the whole time in Bitcoin (BTC) history and there is a reason that happens over and over again.
As more money flows into Bitcoin (BTC), its market cycles get more stretched out. So, if it is going to take a lot longer than before for the bullish part of the cycle to come to fruition, it is also going to take longer for the bearish part of the cycle to come to fruition. If we were to take the December, 2018 lows as the bottom of BTC/USD, then we would be assuming that the recent market cycle had been shorter than the one that preceded it. Historically, that has never been the case which is why we do not think the bear market is over. Once we establish that, it is easier to see what the price is doing and where it could fall to from here.