A crypto analyst known for applying the stock-to-flow ratio to Bitcoin says the leading cryptocurrency is facing a number of headwinds as the 2020 halving approaches.
The halving, which happens about every four years, will slash the supply of new BTC entering the market in half this May.
The pseudonymous analyst known as PlanB says Bitcoin’s supply schedule is strongly linked to the price of BTC. He was the first to apply the stock-to-flow model to BTC, which tracks the circulating supply of an asset against the amount of new supply hitting the market. Often used to track the price of gold and precious metals, PlanB says the ratio is strongly correlated with Bitcoin’s past price movements and shows BTC hitting a high of $1,000,000 within a decade.
But with the halving on the horizon, PlanB now says Bitcoin has a number of issues to overcome, including regulatory uncertainty in the US, hacks and concerns about large sales of BTC from crypto hackers and the seemingly never-ending fallout from the collapse of the crypto exchange MtGox.
“2020 Bitcoin halving will not be an easy ride:
– US/Mnuchin: draconian anti-btc laws
– Craig Wright: legal and patent FUD
– Hacks: like 2016 halving (DAO, Bitfinex)
– MtGox and PlusToken selling narrative
– Miner death spiral and futures FUD
Stock-to-flow skeptics say the advent of Bitcoin derivatives could prevent Bitcoin from rising this time around. They also point to the fact that Bitcoin has only gone through two halvings in the past, saying there’s too little data to confirm their impact on Bitcoin’s price.